Nigeria could face an estimated 31,400 additional heat-related deaths over the coming months as an unusually strong El Niño develops, according to a report by the Climate Impact Lab.
The projection, reported by TheCable on October 22, 2026, highlights the potential health consequences of rising temperatures, particularly for people who have limited access to cooling facilities, reliable electricity, safe water and healthcare.
The figure is a forecast estimate, not a confirmed death toll. Researchers compared expected heat-related mortality during the projected El Niño period with what might occur under more typical conditions.
The findings place Nigeria among the countries expected to face the greatest additional heat-related mortality during the period covered by the study.
What Is El Niño?
El Niño is a naturally occurring climate pattern associated with unusually warm sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean.
It can influence weather conditions around the world by changing atmospheric circulation, rainfall patterns and temperatures. Depending on the region, its effects may include hotter conditions, drought, unusually heavy rainfall or flooding.
The current El Niño has raised concerns among climate researchers and humanitarian organisations because of its potential strength and the number of people who could be exposed to dangerous weather conditions.
Although El Niño is a natural climate phenomenon, human-driven climate change is increasing average global temperatures. This can make periods of extreme heat more dangerous.
Why Is Nigeria at Risk?
Nigeria already experiences high temperatures in several parts of the country, particularly during the hotter months.
According to TheCable’s report, temperatures recently reached 41°C in Nguru, Yobe State, and 34°C in Lagos, citing the Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NiMet).
Prolonged exposure to high temperatures can place considerable strain on the body. The risks may be greater for people who work outdoors, live in poorly ventilated homes or cannot easily access drinking water and cooler environments.
People who depend on daily outdoor work may also find it difficult to avoid the hottest periods without losing income.
The report notes that limited access to electricity could make it harder for many households to use air conditioning or other cooling equipment. Heat can also increase demand for water and electricity, while prolonged dry conditions may put additional pressure on agriculture and livelihoods.
These challenges can make it more difficult for vulnerable households to protect their health during periods of extreme heat.
How Extreme Heat Can Affect Human Health
The human body needs to maintain a relatively stable internal temperature. When environmental heat becomes excessive, the body may struggle to cool itself effectively.
The World Health Organization warns that extreme heat can cause heat exhaustion and heatstroke, worsen existing medical conditions and place additional stress on the heart and kidneys.
The effects may be particularly serious for older adults, infants and young children, pregnant women, outdoor workers and people living with chronic conditions.
1. Dehydration
The body loses water through sweating. When fluid losses are not adequately replaced, dehydration can occur.
Possible warning signs include intense thirst, dizziness, weakness, headache and reduced urination. Severe dehydration requires prompt medical attention.
2. Heat exhaustion
Heat exhaustion develops when the body becomes overheated and loses water and salts through sweating.
Symptoms may include heavy sweating, weakness, headache, dizziness, nausea and a rapid pulse. Anyone experiencing these symptoms should move to a cooler place, stop strenuous activity and begin cooling down.
3. Heatstroke
Heatstroke is a medical emergency that occurs when the body can no longer regulate its temperature adequately.
Warning signs can include confusion, seizures, collapse or loss of consciousness. Emergency medical assistance is needed immediately. While waiting for help, move the person away from the heat and begin cooling them with cool water or other available cooling measures.
4. Worsening of existing health conditions
Extreme heat can aggravate cardiovascular and respiratory diseases, diabetes, kidney conditions and other chronic illnesses.
People taking regular medication or managing long-term medical conditions should seek advice from their healthcare provider about staying safe during periods of unusually hot weather.
Who Needs Extra Protection?
While extreme heat can affect anyone, some people may face greater risks because of their age, health, living conditions or work.
Older adults: Age-related changes and chronic illnesses can make it harder for some older people to cope with high temperatures. Families should check on older relatives regularly, particularly those who live alone.
Infants and children: Young children depend on adults to keep them hydrated and protected from excessive heat. They should not be left in parked vehicles, even for a short period.
Pregnant women: High temperatures can place additional physical strain on the body during pregnancy. Pregnant women should avoid excessive heat exposure and seek medical advice if they feel unwell.
Outdoor workers: Farmers, construction workers, market traders, transport workers and other people who spend long hours outside may have limited opportunities to escape the heat.
People with chronic illnesses or disabilities: Those who have difficulty regulating body temperature, moving to a cooler location or obtaining water may need additional assistance.
How Nigerians Can Protect Themselves During Extreme Heat
Although individuals cannot control El Niño, practical measures can reduce exposure to excessive heat and help protect vulnerable people.
Drink water regularly
Drink water throughout the day, especially when spending time outdoors or engaging in physical activity. Do not wait until you feel extremely thirsty before drinking.
People who have been advised to restrict fluids because of a medical condition should follow their healthcare provider’s guidance.
Avoid strenuous activity during the hottest periods
Where possible, schedule outdoor work and exercise for cooler periods of the day. Take regular breaks in the shade or in a cooler environment.
Workers and employers should take heat exposure seriously and make arrangements for rest, drinking water and appropriate breaks.
Keep your living space as cool as possible
Use shade, curtains or blinds to reduce direct sunlight entering the home. Where outdoor air is cooler than indoor air, opening windows may help improve ventilation.
If possible, spend some time in a cooler location during particularly hot periods.
Wear light, breathable clothing
Lightweight, loose-fitting clothing can help the body lose heat more effectively. A hat and shade can also help reduce direct sun exposure when outdoors.
Check on vulnerable family members
Call or visit older relatives, neighbours and people who live alone, particularly during prolonged hot weather.
Check whether they have drinking water, a reasonably cool place to rest and access to help if they begin to feel unwell.
Pay attention to official weather alerts
Follow updates from the Nigerian Meteorological Agency and relevant public health authorities. Weather conditions vary across the country, so local forecasts are more useful than assuming every state will experience the same temperatures.
What Should You Do If Someone Becomes Unwell in the Heat?
If someone develops symptoms such as dizziness, weakness, headache or heavy sweating after exposure to heat, help them move to a cooler place, stop physical activity and cool their body with water or cool, damp cloths.
If the person is fully alert and able to swallow safely, offer water.
Seek medical advice if symptoms are severe, persistent or worsening.
If the person becomes confused, has a seizure, collapses or loses consciousness, seek emergency medical assistance immediately. Begin cooling the person while waiting for help. Do not give fluids to someone who is unconscious or unable to swallow safely.
What the Forecast Means for Nigeria
The Climate Impact Lab’s estimate of 31,400 additional heat-related deaths is a warning about the possible scale of the health burden, not a prediction that a specific number of people will certainly die.
The eventual impact will depend on actual weather conditions, people’s exposure to heat, access to healthcare and the measures taken to protect vulnerable communities.
The report also points to the importance of preparation. Early warnings, public awareness, workplace protections and access to cooler environments can help reduce the risks associated with extreme heat.
For Nigeria, protecting people from heat-related illness will require action from government agencies, healthcare providers, employers, communities and families.
As temperatures rise, recognising the warning signs of heat-related illness and responding quickly could make a meaningful difference.
This article is for general health education and does not replace advice from a qualified healthcare professional.
